Climate has always changed, and it always will. The assumption that prior to the industrial revolution the Earth had a "stable" climate is simply wrong. The only sensible thing to do about climate change is to prepare for it.
Here is a graph of solar radiation sincewhen sunspots were first recorded.
The brown line is the solar radiation, and it peaks every 11 years or so because of the sunspot cycle. We put an year smoother through it to give us the red line, which shows the trends in solar radiation.
The recent fall in TSI is the steepest and one of the largest ever recorded records go back to It makes very little difference. Compare the new graph to the original here.
There have been three big, steep falls in solar radiation in the last years.
The first was in the s. This was the coldest period during the last years. There used to be fairs on the ice in the Thames River in London, because it would freeze over for weeks at a time.
The second fall is around the time of Napoleon and it preceded the second coldest period in the last years, called the Dalton Minimum. The third fall occurred recently, starting in about The delay is most likely 11 years, though definitely between 10 and 20 years.
Eleven years after issuggesting the cooling will start in However, 11 years is only the average delay, and the physical interpretation of the delay see Post IV suggests the delay is actually the length of the solar cycle—which has varied from 8 to 14 years, but averages 11 years.
The current solar cycle is a long one, probably running around 13 years: So the cooling is most likely to begin in The delay could be as much as 20 years, in which case the drop could be as late as Or it could occur as soon as An El Nino or La Nina could affect the timing too.
But by the end of seems fairly likely. Notice that so far we have only applied our physical understanding of the delay, and its implication of a powerful solar influence that is signaled by changes in solar radiation but acts after a period of time equal to the delay.
For that we turn to the notch-delay solar model, which hindcasts the last years of temperatures reasonably well simply from the total solar irradiance TSI.
This model was developed earlier in this series of blog posts; see here for an overview and links. The effect on temperatures of changes in force X is 10 to 20 times as great as the immediate effect of changes in solar radiation see Post VI.The New World Order or NWO is claimed to be an emerging clandestine totalitarian world government by various conspiracy theories..
The common theme in conspiracy theories about a New World Order is that a secretive power elite with a globalist agenda is conspiring to eventually rule the world through an authoritarian world government—which will replace sovereign nation-states—and an all.
[An essay in my series on the Future of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence.]. We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics. There is hysteria about how powerful they will become how quickly, and there is hysteria about what they will do to jobs.
Global Warming: Fact or Fantasy? While there is a growing concern over the doomsday and gloom events that the earth will likely suffer if people will continue harassing the environment, a big inquiry within the issue on global warming bomdards people everyday: is global warming fact of fantasy?
Say's Law and Supply Side Economics. It should be known that at the beginning of a dynasty, taxation yields a large revenue from small assessments. Global warming changes climate.
Human activity – mainly burning fossil fuels and chopping down forests – has caused average temperatures to rise worldwide. That's global warming. The warmer atmosphere triggers climate change, or shifts in normal climate patterns.
Such deviations can result in more severe weather. Paul Kingsnorth is a writer and poet living in Cumbria, England. He is the author of several books, including the poetry collection Kidland and his fictional debut The Wake, winner of the Gordon Burn Prize and the Bookseller Book of the Year Award.
Kingsnorth is the cofounder and director of the Dark Mountain Project, a network of writers, artists, and thinkers.